Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.118410 0.131886 0.145843 0.161346 0.178051 0.195475 0.214993
2024-10-06 0.100285 0.120593 0.142795 0.168725 0.198027 0.229968 0.267267
2024-10-13 0.085488 0.110136 0.138403 0.172864 0.213377 0.259134 0.314346
2024-10-20 0.073850 0.101317 0.134195 0.175806 0.226395 0.285240 0.358159
2024-10-27 0.064527 0.093840 0.130329 0.178075 0.237843 0.309134 0.399472
2024-11-03 0.061595 0.093874 0.135322 0.190976 0.262213 0.348800 0.460349
2024-11-10 0.054415 0.087365 0.131139 0.191576 0.270779 0.368959 0.497616
2024-11-17 0.049243 0.082960 0.129164 0.194565 0.282067 0.392404 0.539119
2024-11-24 0.044042 0.077898 0.125755 0.195169 0.289920 0.411358 0.575082
2024-12-01 0.042599 0.078194 0.129696 0.205761 0.311125 0.447767 0.633825
2024-12-08 0.041233 0.078414 0.133414 0.216029 0.332025 0.484091 0.693026
2024-12-15 0.037537 0.074568 0.130840 0.217099 0.340175 0.503589 0.730498
2024-12-22 0.032931 0.069000 0.125622 0.214532 0.343806 0.517999 0.762828
2024-12-29 0.031680 0.068988 0.128927 0.224656 0.365676 0.557637 0.829682
2025-01-05 0.029502 0.067135 0.129201 0.230212 0.381176 0.588964 0.886099
2025-01-12 0.027180 0.064755 0.128421 0.234040 0.394193 0.617077 0.938649
2025-01-19 0.024913 0.062206 0.127138 0.236928 0.405795 0.643352 0.989063
2025-01-26 0.025165 0.064512 0.134066 0.252909 0.437125 0.697791 1.078900
2025-02-02 0.022814 0.061404 0.131538 0.253664 0.445624 0.720090 1.124697
2025-02-09 0.021150 0.059486 0.130904 0.257356 0.458542 0.748796 1.179723
2025-02-16 0.019210 0.056742 0.128584 0.258104 0.466870 0.770958 1.225824
2025-02-23 0.019121 0.058018 0.133583 0.271145 0.494418 0.821294 1.312192
2025-03-02 0.018966 0.059118 0.138273 0.283753 0.521491 0.871274 1.398606